二、2018年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向
I now wish to address the overall requirements and policy direction for economic and social development in 2018.文章源自西贝博客-https://qinghe.me/2018-the-report-on-the-work-of-the-government.html
今年是全面贯彻党的十九大精神的开局之年，是改革开放 40周年，是决胜全面建成小康社会、实施“十三五”规划承上启下的关键一年。做好政府工作，要在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，以马克思列宁主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论、“三个代表”重要思想、科学发展观、习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面深入贯彻党的十九大和十九届二中、三中全会精神，贯彻党的基本理论、基本路线、基本方略，坚持和加强党的全面领导，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，坚持新发展理念，紧扣我国社会主要矛盾变化，按照高质量发展的要求，统筹推进“五位一体”总体布局和协调推进“四个全面”战略布局，坚持以供给侧结构性改革为主线，统筹推进稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生、防风险各项工作，大力推进改革开放，创新和完善宏观调控，推动质量变革、效率变革、动力变革，特别在打好防范化解重大风险、精准脱贫、污染防治的攻坚战方面取得扎实进展，引导和稳定预期，加强和改善民生，促进经济社会持续健康发展。文章源自西贝博客-https://qinghe.me/2018-the-report-on-the-work-of-the-government.html
This year will kick off our efforts to put all the guiding principles from the Party’s 19th National Congress into action. It is the 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up, and it is a crucial year for securing a decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and for continuing to implement the 13th Five-Year Plan. To accomplish the government’s work for the year, we must, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, do the following:文章源自西贝博客-https://qinghe.me/2018-the-report-on-the-work-of-the-government.html
- follow the guidance of Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, the Scientific Outlook on Development, and Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era; implement fully all the guiding principles from the Party’s 19th National Congress and the second and third plenary sessions of the 19th Party Central Committee; act on the Party’s basic theory, line, and policy; adhere to and strengthen Party leadership in all of our work; remain committed to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability and to the new development philosophy;
- respond to the change in the principal contradiction in Chinese society;
- heed the requirement that development must be high quality;
- coordinate efforts to pursue the five-sphere integrated plan and the four-pronged comprehensive strategy;
- continue to regard supply-side structural reform as our main task;
- coordinate all work to maintain stable growth, promote reform, make structural adjustments, improve living standards, and guard against risk;
- work hard to reform and open up further;
- explore new ideas on and improve macro regulation;
- promote a change in quality, change in efficiency, and change in growth drivers;
- work particularly for solid progress in forestalling and defusing major risks, in targeted poverty alleviation, and in addressing pollution;
- guide and stabilize expectations, improve living standards, and promote sustained, healthy economic and social development.
综合分析国内外形势，我国发展面临的机遇和挑战并存。世界经济有望继续复苏，但不稳定不确定因素很多，主要经济体政策调整及其外溢效应带来变数，保护主义加剧，地缘政治风险上升。我国经济正处在转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力的攻关期，还有很多坡要爬、坎要过，需要应对可以预料和难以预料的风险挑战。实践表明，中国的发展成就从来都是在攻坚克难中取得的。当前我国物质技术基础更加雄厚，产业体系完备、市场规模巨大、人力资源丰富、创业创新活跃，综合优势明显，有能力有条件实现更高质量、更有效率、更加公平、更可持续的发展。文章源自西贝博客-https://qinghe.me/2018-the-report-on-the-work-of-the-government.html
A comprehensive analysis of how things stand at home and abroad tells us that China, in its development, faces both opportunities and challenges. We can expect continued recovery of the global economy, but there are also many factors that bring instability and uncertainty. The policy changes of the major economies and their spillover effects create uncertainty; protectionism is mounting, and geopolitical risks are on the ascent. China’s economy is now in a pivotal period in the transformation of its growth model, its structural improvement, and its shift to new growth drivers. There are still many hills to climb and gorges to cross; we will have to face risks and challenges, some foreseeable and others not. In fact, it’s always been the case that China’s achievements in development have been made whilst overcoming difficulties. Today, China’s material and technological foundations are much stronger; its industrial system is complete, its market is vast, its human resources are abundant, and its entrepreneurs and innovators are dynamic. We enjoy composite advantages, and all this means that we have the ability and the conditions to achieve higher quality, more efficient, fairer, and more sustainable development.文章源自西贝博客-https://qinghe.me/2018-the-report-on-the-work-of-the-government.html
今年发展主要预期目标是：国内生产总值增长6.5%左右；居民消费价格涨幅3%左右；城镇新增就业1100万人以上，城镇调查失业率 5.5%以内，城镇登记失业率 4.5%以内；居民收入增长和经济增长基本同步；进出口稳中向好，国际收支基本平衡；单位国内生产总值能耗下降3%以上，主要污染物排放量继续下降；供给侧结构性改革取得实质性进展，宏观杠杆率保持基本稳定，各类风险有序有效防控。文章源自西贝博客-https://qinghe.me/2018-the-report-on-the-work-of-the-government.html
Based on the above considerations, we have set the following projected targets for development this year:文章源自西贝博客-https://qinghe.me/2018-the-report-on-the-work-of-the-government.html
- GDP growth of around 6.5 percent
- CPI increase of around 3 percent
- Over 11 million new urban jobs, the surveyed urban unemployment rate within 5.5 percent, and the registered urban jobless rate within 4.5 percent
- Basic parity in personal income growth and economic growth
- A steady rise in import and export volumes, and a basic equilibrium in the balance of payments
- A drop of at least 3 percent in energy consumption per unit of GDP, and continued reductions in the release of major pollutants
- Substantive progress in supply-side structural reform, basically stable macro leverage, and systematic and effective prevention and control of risk
上述主要预期目标，考虑了决胜全面建成小康社会需要，符合我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段实际。从经济基本面和就业吸纳能力看，6.5%左右的增速可以实现比较充分的就业。城镇调查失业率涵盖农民工等城镇常住人口，今年首次把这一指标作为预期目标，以更全面反映就业状况，更好体现共享发展要求。文章源自西贝博客-https://qinghe.me/2018-the-report-on-the-work-of-the-government.html
The above targets take into consideration the need to secure a decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and are fitting given the fact that China’s economy is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development. Given our economic fundamentals and capacity for job creation, GDP growth of around 6.5 percent will enable us to achieve relatively full employment. The surveyed urban unemployment rate covers rural migrant workers and other permanent urban residents. This year, for the first time we are using this indicator as a projected target; this is intended to give a fuller picture of employment and to better reflect the requirement that development that is to be shared by everyone.文章源自西贝博客-https://qinghe.me/2018-the-report-on-the-work-of-the-government.html
今年要继续创新和完善宏观调控，把握好宏观调控的度，保持宏观政策连续性稳定性，加强财政、货币、产业、区域等政策协调配合。文章源自西贝博客-https://qinghe.me/2018-the-report-on-the-work-of-the-government.html
This year, we will continue to develop new ways of improving macro regulation and ensure that the degree of macro regulation is right. We will maintain the continuity and consistency of macro policies, and better coordinate fiscal, monetary, industrial, regional, and other policies.
积极的财政政策取向不变，要聚力增效。今年赤字率拟按2.6%安排，比去年预算低0.4个百分点；财政赤字2.38万亿元，其中中央财政赤字1.55万亿元，地方财政赤字 8300亿元。调低赤字率，主要是我国经济稳中向好、财政增收有基础，也为宏观调控留下更多政策空间。今年全国财政支出21万亿元，支出规模进一步加大。中央对地方一般性转移支付增长 10.9%，增强地方特别是中西部地区财力。优化财政支出结构，提高财政支出的公共性、普惠性，加大对三大攻坚战的支持，更多向创新驱动、“三农”、民生等领域倾斜。当前财政状况出现好转，各级政府仍要坚持过紧日子，执守简朴、力戒浮华，严控一般性支出，把宝贵的资金更多用于为发展增添后劲、为民生雪中送炭。
The proactive direction of our fiscal policy will remain the same, and we will concentrate efforts to increase efficiency. This year’s deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to be 2.6 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower than last year. The government deficit is projected to be 2.38 trillion yuan, with a central government deficit of 1.55 trillion yuan and local government deficit of 0.83 trillion yuan. The reduction in the deficit-to-GDP ratio is mainly due to China’s economic growth being steady and the foundation being there for an increase in revenue; it also keeps policy options open for macro regulation. Government expenditure is budgeted at 21 trillion yuan, representing a further increase in the scale of spending. The central government will increase general transfer payments to local governments by 10.9 percent, to strengthen local finances, especially in the central and western regions. We will improve the structure of budgetary spending, making sure that more financial allocations are used for the public good and universal benefit, increasing support for the three critical battles against potential risk, poverty, and pollution, and weighting spending toward innovation-driven development, agriculture, rural areas, and rural residents, and the improvement of living standards. Although the government finances are improving, government at all levels must keep its belt tightened, keep things as simple as possible, abstain from all excess, and strictly control general expenditures, so that these precious funds are used to add growth drivers for sustaining development and meet people’s most urgent needs.
稳健的货币政策保持中性，要松紧适度。管好货币供给总闸门，保持广义货币M2、信贷和社会融资规模合理增长，维护流动性合理稳定，提高直接融资特别是股权融资比重。疏通货币政策传导渠道，用好差别化准备金、差异化信贷等政策，引导资金更多投向小微企业、“三农”和贫困地区，更好服务实体经济。
Our prudent monetary policy will remain neutral, with easing or tightening only as appropriate. We need to make sure that the valve of aggregate monetary supply is well controlled, maintain moderate growth in M2 money supply, credit, and aggregate financing, ensure a reasonable, stable level of liquidity, and increase the proportion of direct finance, particularly equity finance. We will improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, make better use of differentiated reserve ratio and credit policies, and encourage more funds to flow toward small and micro businesses, agriculture, rural areas, and rural residents, and poor areas, and to better serve the real economy.
做好今年工作，要认真贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，把稳和进作为一个整体来把握，注重以下几点。一是大力推动高质量发展。发展是解决我国一切问题的基础和关键。要着力解决发展不平衡不充分问题，围绕建设现代化经济体系，坚持质量第一、效益优先，促进经济结构优化升级。要尊重经济规律，远近结合，确保经济运行在合理区间，实现经济平稳增长和质量效益提高互促共进。二是加大改革开放力度。改革开放是决定当代中国命运的关键一招，也是实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标的关键一招。在新的历史起点上，思想要再解放，改革要再深化，开放要再扩大。充分发挥人民首创精神，鼓励各地从实际出发，敢闯敢试，敢于碰硬，把改革开放不断向前推进。三是抓好决胜全面建成小康社会三大攻坚战。要分别提出工作思路和具体举措，排出时间表、路线图、优先序，确保风险隐患得到有效控制，确保脱贫攻坚任务全面完成，确保生态环境质量总体改善。我们所做的一切工作，都是为了人民。要坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，从我国基本国情出发，尽力而为、量力而行，把群众最关切最烦心的事一件一件解决好，促进社会公平正义和人的全面发展，使人民生活随着国家发展一年比一年更好。
For government to deliver this year, we must act on Xi Jinping’s economic thinking for new-era socialism with Chinese characteristics, continue following the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, and regard stability and progress as being indivisible. Specifically, we will do the following:
First, we will strongly promote high-quality development. Development is the underpinning and the key for solving all our country’s problems. We will devote attention to addressing unbalanced and insufficient development. Centering on developing a modernized economy, we will put quality first and give priority to performance, and promote economic structural improvement and upgrading. We must respect objective economic laws, consider both long- and near-term needs, ensure the economy performs within a reasonable range, and achieve a situation in which steady economic growth and improvement in quality and performance reinforce each other.
Second, we will be bolder in reform and opening-up. Reform and opening was a game-changing move in making China what it is today; it now remains a game-changing move for us to achieve China’s Two Centenary Goals*. Standing at a new historic starting point, we must go further in freeing our minds, in deepening reform, and in opening-up. We need to give full play to the pioneering drive of the people, and encourage all localities, based on their own conditions, to dare to explore, dare to try things out, and dare to confront the toughest of issues, to keep reform and opening-up constantly moving forward.
Third, we will ensure success in the three critical battles against potential risk, poverty, and pollution, battles that are important for decisively bringing to completion the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. We need to adopt targeted approaches and specific measures, draw up timetables and roadmaps, and set well-defined priorities. We will make sure risks and potential dangers are effectively controlled, make sure poverty alleviation is fully accomplished, and make sure there is an overall improvement in the quality of the environment. All of our work is work for the people. We will stay true to the vision of people-centered development, start by considering China’s own situation, and do everything within our capacity to resolve each and every one of the issues that most affect and worry our people, promote social fairness and justice and well-rounded human development, and see that the people’s lives, along with our country’s development, keep getting better year after year.
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